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Re: /8 end user assignment?

  • From: Daniel Roesen
  • Date: Thu Aug 04 16:50:17 2005

On Thu, Aug 04, 2005 at 09:26:48PM +0100, Stephen J. Wilcox wrote:
> > So you ask folks to resort to hacks like NAT or force IPv6-only to
> > their users when there is still a lack-of-content problem there?
> > Can you show me your business plan draft for that? I'm curious. :-)
> 
> ok, thats not what i mean.. i am saying /8,/9 etc are not normal

Not common, but not !normal, IMHO. As others stated, Softbank has some
11 million subscribers. What if they plan to get rid of the dynamic IP
thing and offer proper static addresses by default? Then a /8 is not at
all "weird" but just necessary.

> > > If everyone in this category who could justify a /8 applied and
> > > received them we might be in real trouble with our IPv4 space.
> > 
> > We are already, but you seem to have your head firmly sticking in the
> > sand, together with the content providers. :-)
> 
> i thought we had years to go according to some decent sources?

Famous last words when driving down a long road towards a firm wall of
concrete. You want to rush then? Do you wait for the pain to fully
extend? I prefer orderly, planned, concious migrations, not a state of
"uhm, we cannot get new IPv4 address space anymore, and the grey market
prices for IPv4 space is skyrocketing... I cannot afford it anymore and
our customers switch to ISPs who can still".

I thing that things will become very very nasty when we not only see the
wall on our map but actually see it coming quickly on the horizont and
warning signs at the side of the road tell something about "last exit to
IPv6 in x miles. Toll applicable.".

> > I hope that more ISPs stop doing NAT/RFC1918 and just request whatever they
> > need.
> 
> how long does it take such an org to use 16 million IPs?

With 11 million subscribers? How long does it take to write and run a
script to associate a unique IP to every customer in the RADIUS database?

> based on the above comment of '..need to run out' should they not
> maybe get 1million then come back when they use it all to give some
> other folks a chance?

A chance for what? You can get IPs for your customers too. Have a
million customers, get a million addresses (and more, because of the
hierarchy tax).

IPv4 will exhaust. Get yourself comfortable with this idea and plan to
be fully ready for IPv6 service way before that happens.

> i'm not suggesting denying anyone the IPs they require but i am
> suggesting we shouldnt steam ahead into exhaustion either

Well, I'm quite sure ARIN didn't hand out the addresses just to "steam
ahead in to exhaustion". Unlike with IPv6 where your customer count is
enough to justify address space, in IPv4 you also have to "proof" that
you will actually use the address space too. So I speculate that they
will have provided enough evidence that they are going to actually use
this IP space within the next couple of years. Their IPv6 allocation
pretty nicely aligns to their subscriber count btw. According to
HD-Ratio you'll need (IIRC) >5.5 million customers or so for a /20.

Perhaps some Softbank folks want to provide some insight in the plans
surrounding this chunk of IPv4 address space?


Regards,
Daniel

-- 
CLUE-RIPE -- Jabber: dr@cluenet.de -- dr@IRCnet -- PGP: 0xA85C8AA0




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