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NANOG Digest, Vol 31, Issue 17
- From: nanog-request
- Date: Mon Aug 09 08:00:44 2010
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Today's Topics:
1. Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet
bubble (Randy Bush)
2. Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet
bubble (Andrew Odlyzko)
3. Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet
bubble (Jared Mauch)
4. Google wants your Internet to be faster (Mark Boolootian)
5. Re: Google wants your Internet to be faster (Raymond Dijkxhoorn)
6. Re: Google wants your Internet to be faster (Philip Dorr)
7. Re: Google wants your Internet to be faster (Adam Armstrong)
8. Re: Google wants your Internet to be faster (Mikael Abrahamsson)
9. Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet
bubble (Roland Perry)
10. Re: Google wants your Internet to be faster (Graham Beneke)
11. Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet
bubble (Randy Bush)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Message: 1
Date: Sun, 08 Aug 2010 05:22:29 -0700
From: Randy Bush <randy@psg.com>
Subject: Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet
bubble
To: JC Dill <jcdill.lists@gmail.com>
Cc: nanog@nanog.org
Message-ID: <m2bp9d2t16.wl%randy@psg.com>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII
>> my memory is that he said doubling every nine months.
> Mine too.
mo's too. i asked.
randy
------------------------------
Message: 2
Date: Sun, 08 Aug 2010 08:30:44 -0500
From: odlyzko@umn.edu (Andrew Odlyzko)
Subject: Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet
bubble
To: randy@psg.com
Cc: nanog@nanog.org
Message-ID: <4c5eb184.zCi3ckNtt9RxZE0d%odlyzko@umn.edu>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Fascinating. Memories may be plastic (something that has been
established scientifically), or else we may have yet another
inconsistency to add to the pile of others. Is there any
documentation about the "doubling every nine months"? I have
never seen that particular claim emanating from anyone involved
with WorldCom/UUNet.
On the other hand, existing record shows (among others):
1. U.S. Department of Commerce white paper from April 1998,
http://govinfo.library.unt.edu/ecommerce/EDEreprt.pdf
on p. 8 declares that "UUNET, one of the largest Internet
backbone providers, estimates that Internet traffic doubles
every 100 days," with a reference to an Inktomi white paper
that attributes this claim to Mike O'Dell. The Inktomi
report is no longer on the Web, but I can provide a copy
to anyone interested.
2. The transcript of the May 2000 presentation by O'Dell
at a Stanford conference clearly has him saying that the
capacity of the UUNet network, as measured by OC12-miles,
doubles every four months,
http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/isources/odell-transcript.txt
As is explained in my paper, in the 1998-2000 time frame,
essentially all the WorldCom/UUNet claims then seemed to be
about capacity, not traffic.
3. The year-end 2000 email from O'Dell to Dave Farber's IP list,
http://www.interesting-people.org/archives/interesting-people/200011/msg00058.html
has him talking of traffic doubling each year, while capacity
grows 8-fold.
If some time in that period there was a claim of a "doubling
every nine months," too, that would be very interesting.
Andrew
Randy Bush <randy@psg.com> wrote:
> >> my memory is that he said doubling every nine months.
> > Mine too.
>
> mo's too. i asked.
>
> randy
------------------------------
Message: 3
Date: Sun, 8 Aug 2010 10:29:32 -0400
From: Jared Mauch <jared@puck.nether.net>
Subject: Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet
bubble
To: Andrew Odlyzko <odlyzko@umn.edu>
Cc: "nanog@nanog.org" <nanog@nanog.org>
Message-ID: <8F756AB3-F5A7-4C5D-9A60-13AEEC0EF772@puck.nether.net>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
One thing I have heard repeated about one large carrier is that only 10% of their network is used for their Internet product. The remainder of it is used for private leased lines (could also be someone running IP) or another carrier that is leasing a loop or tdm service from them.
Jared Mauch
On Aug 8, 2010, at 9:30 AM, odlyzko@umn.edu (Andrew Odlyzko) wrote:
> Fascinating. Memories may be plastic (something that has been
> established scientifically), or else we may have yet another
> inconsistency to add to the pile of others. Is there any
> documentation about the "doubling every nine months"? I have
> never seen that particular claim emanating from anyone involved
> with WorldCom/UUNet.
>
> On the other hand, existing record shows (among others):
>
> 1. U.S. Department of Commerce white paper from April 1998,
>
> http://govinfo.library.unt.edu/ecommerce/EDEreprt.pdf
>
> on p. 8 declares that "UUNET, one of the largest Internet
> backbone providers, estimates that Internet traffic doubles
> every 100 days," with a reference to an Inktomi white paper
> that attributes this claim to Mike O'Dell. The Inktomi
> report is no longer on the Web, but I can provide a copy
> to anyone interested.
>
> 2. The transcript of the May 2000 presentation by O'Dell
> at a Stanford conference clearly has him saying that the
> capacity of the UUNet network, as measured by OC12-miles,
> doubles every four months,
>
> http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/isources/odell-transcript.txt
>
> As is explained in my paper, in the 1998-2000 time frame,
> essentially all the WorldCom/UUNet claims then seemed to be
> about capacity, not traffic.
>
> 3. The year-end 2000 email from O'Dell to Dave Farber's IP list,
>
> http://www.interesting-people.org/archives/interesting-people/200011/msg00058.html
>
> has him talking of traffic doubling each year, while capacity
> grows 8-fold.
>
> If some time in that period there was a claim of a "doubling
> every nine months," too, that would be very interesting.
>
> Andrew
>
>
>
>
>
> Randy Bush <randy@psg.com> wrote:
>
>>>> my memory is that he said doubling every nine months.
>>> Mine too.
>>
>> mo's too. i asked.
>>
>> randy
------------------------------
Message: 4
Date: Sun, 8 Aug 2010 16:21:02 -0700
From: Mark Boolootian <booloo@ucsc.edu>
Subject: Google wants your Internet to be faster
To: nanog@nanog.org
Message-ID: <20100808232102.GA12802@root.ucsc.edu>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Cringely has a theory and it involves Google and Verizon,
but it doesn't involve net neutrality:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/08/opinion/08cringeley.html?_r=2
------------------------------
Message: 5
Date: Mon, 9 Aug 2010 01:25:33 +0200 (CEST)
From: Raymond Dijkxhoorn <raymond@prolocation.net>
Subject: Re: Google wants your Internet to be faster
To: Mark Boolootian <booloo@ucsc.edu>
Cc: nanog@nanog.org
Message-ID: <alpine.LFD.2.00.1008090125020.2906@noc.prolocation.net>
Content-Type: TEXT/PLAIN; charset=US-ASCII; format=flowed
Hi!
> Cringely has a theory and it involves Google and Verizon,
> but it doesn't involve net neutrality:
>
> http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/08/opinion/08cringeley.html?_r=2
Woow this is fantactic news. Oh wait. Didnt Akamai invent this years ago?
Bye,
Raymond.
------------------------------
Message: 6
Date: Sun, 8 Aug 2010 18:38:57 -0500
From: Philip Dorr <tagno25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re: Google wants your Internet to be faster
To: nanog@nanog.org
Message-ID:
<AANLkTikvqEAc_z3KndH9Rh0JipUaKUJMx-EyL-sfXhkQ@mail.gmail.com>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8
nytimes==troll (when it comes to technology)
On Sun, Aug 8, 2010 at 6:25 PM, Raymond Dijkxhoorn
<raymond@prolocation.net> wrote:
> Hi!
>
>> Cringely has a theory and it involves Google and Verizon,
>> but it doesn't involve net neutrality:
>>
>> ?http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/08/opinion/08cringeley.html?_r=2
>
> Woow this is fantactic news. Oh wait. Didnt Akamai invent this years ago?
>
> Bye,
> Raymond.
>
>
------------------------------
Message: 7
Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2010 00:56:00 +0100
From: Adam Armstrong <lists@memetic.org>
Subject: Re: Google wants your Internet to be faster
To: nanog@nanog.org
Message-ID: <4C5F4410.1030107@memetic.org>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; format=flowed
On 09/08/2010 00:21, Mark Boolootian wrote:
>
> Cringely has a theory and it involves Google and Verizon,
> but it doesn't involve net neutrality:
>
> http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/08/opinion/08cringeley.html?_r=2
>
I'd assumed this would have been everyone's guess when the stories first
appeared.
It's not even a particularly new idea for Google, but it's probably the
first time the media has heard of it.
adam.
------------------------------
Message: 8
Date: Mon, 9 Aug 2010 07:21:17 +0200 (CEST)
From: Mikael Abrahamsson <swmike@swm.pp.se>
Subject: Re: Google wants your Internet to be faster
To: Raymond Dijkxhoorn <raymond@prolocation.net>
Cc: nanog@nanog.org
Message-ID: <alpine.DEB.1.10.1008090718140.19930@uplift.swm.pp.se>
Content-Type: TEXT/PLAIN; charset=US-ASCII; format=flowed
On Mon, 9 Aug 2010, Raymond Dijkxhoorn wrote:
> Woow this is fantactic news. Oh wait. Didnt Akamai invent this years
> ago?
I helped install my first Akamai cluster before year 2000 if I remember
correctly. So it's at least a decade ago :P
--
Mikael Abrahamsson email: swmike@swm.pp.se
------------------------------
Message: 9
Date: Mon, 9 Aug 2010 09:34:17 +0100
From: Roland Perry <lists@internetpolicyagency.com>
Subject: Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet
bubble
To: nanog@nanog.org
Message-ID: <uV5sqGaJ27XMFA3C@perry.co.uk>
Content-Type: text/plain;charset=us-ascii;format=flowed
In article <m2bp9d2t16.wl%randy@psg.com>, Randy Bush <randy@psg.com>
writes
>>> my memory is that he said doubling every nine months.
>> Mine too.
>
>mo's too. i asked.
This isn't just my recollection of what Mike said in 2001, the news item
I quoted was printed in 2001. So even if it's a mistaken memory (of the
late 90's), it was a mistaken memory captured in 2001.
I mentioned it simply as a fairly contemporary reference to the meme.
Having said that, doubling every 9 months was approximately the growth
that LINX was seeing at the time.
--
Roland Perry
------------------------------
Message: 10
Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2010 11:14:16 +0200
From: Graham Beneke <graham@apolix.co.za>
Subject: Re: Google wants your Internet to be faster
To: nanog@nanog.org
Message-ID: <4C5FC6E8.3090303@apolix.co.za>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; format=flowed
On 09/08/2010 07:21, Mikael Abrahamsson wrote:
> I helped install my first Akamai cluster before year 2000 if I remember
> correctly. So it's at least a decade ago :P
What I find funny is that Google has already been running these kinds of
content distribution nodes in Africa for over a year.
It makes a significant difference to the user experience when you
reduced the RTT to the content servers by 200-400ms
--
Graham Beneke
------------------------------
Message: 11
Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2010 04:58:39 -0700
From: Randy Bush <randy@psg.com>
Subject: Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet
bubble
To: Roland Perry <lists@internetpolicyagency.com>
Cc: nanog@nanog.org
Message-ID: <m239uo0zgw.wl%randy@psg.com>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII
while most of us seem to remember traffic doubling every nine months or
a year (and some have memories of that being the meme then) [0],
capacity build was massively above that level. think of the compound
rate one gets when one substitutes owned wet glass for a few leased
stm-1s. to quote a friend
if a network's capacity grows O(10**6) in 6 years, measured in
miles*gigabits/sec, how would you describe it?
randy
--
[0] - we're seeing about 50% broadband growth a year in japan according
to thems that track, see Kenjiro Cho. "Broadband Traffic Report"
Internet Infrastructure Review vol.4, pp18-23. August 2009.
------------------------------
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End of NANOG Digest, Vol 31, Issue 17
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