I have no idea if this is really related, but the issue was the same weekend
that ConEd had major network maintenance going on. My ConEd service was
down (NYC area) for the entire weekend (about 60 hours) during their planned
maintenance window to convert their network to MPLS. I saw their
maintenance notice and noticed that the window lasted multiple days. I
expected the link to go down - but I never imagined they meant it would stay
down for the entire maintenance window.
ConEd Communications was recently acquired by RCN. I'm not sure if the
transaction has formally closed. I suspect there are serious transition
issues occurring. "Financial Stability", "Employee Churn", and "Ownership"
are, unfortunately, tough things to factor into BGP algorithms.