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Re: classful routes redux

  • From: Geoff Huston
  • Date: Fri Nov 04 18:52:39 2005

At 07:27 AM 5/11/2005, Randy Bush wrote:
> RIRs, and if we assume no change in AS number policies, and no
> change in the trend of ageing out 'old' AS numbers at a rate of
> some 5% per year into the unadvertised pool, then the 2byte field
> will exhaust sometime in October 2010.

no waffling.  you said october 14th, and we're holding you to it!
we would like to know about what time of day, so we can schedule
lunch and coffee.
well, the figures indicate that RIPE will receive 10 requests on that day, and will start the day with 5 left in their pool. So the first allocation processed after lunch will fail - so that would mean at 2:00 pm CET on the 14th October 2010 - or thereabouts! :-).



> Is AS reclaimation an option? We don't know how many 'dark'
> (unadvertised) AS numbers are used as VPN IDs in 2547 contexts.

do we care?  i.e. does it affect the real public internet.  are
these not like 1918?
practice and theory. In theory whether such as's are used in private contexts or not makes no difference as to their potential to be used in the public Internet. The practice this may not be so easy.


> Current figures indicate that it would work for 3 years if we
> were able to reclaim ALL unadvertised AS numbers and recycle
> them. How much effort would it take to get this additional 3
> years?

and how much money will lawers make off the ensuing riot?

Certainly a factor that can't be ignored completely!

Which is why I've offerred the perspective that it may be easier to simply
press on with the 4-Byte AS work and get the routers into a position to be able
to accept the deployment of 4-Byte ASs, rather than debate at some length
the potential cost and benefit of forms of reclaimation efforts in this space.

regards,

   Geoff





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