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North American Network Operators Group

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Re: Multi-6 [WAS: OT - Vint Cerf joins Google]

  • From: Steven M. Bellovin
  • Date: Mon Sep 12 00:56:41 2005

>I don't think is failing ... On the other way around: looking at the
>adoption perspectives and compared with other technologies, transition
>stages, and so on, is going much faster than expected ...
About 4 years ago, I predicted that v6 would be very significant 8-10 
years from then.  I think we're right on track.

As someone else noted, Windows Vista will have v6 enabled by default.  
There's also a version-independent network API.  As a consequence, most 
applications written for Vista will be v6-capable.  Vista will ship 
next year; 4-5 years after that, most desktops will be running it, and 
hence will support v6, including the applications.  We're also seeing 
planning for conversion (i.e., the U.S. Defense Department) and 
deployment in some parts of the world.

An obvious corollary to this is that ISPs should be planning their v6 
offerings now, too.  This means routers, databases, operation support 
systems, CPE for cable and DSL ISPs, etc.  Those that don't are likely 
to find themselves bypassed.  

		--Steven M. Bellovin,

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