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Re: More on Vonage service disruptions...

  • From: Robert M. Enger
  • Date: Wed Mar 02 14:57:37 2005

The subject is of most concern at the edge.
There are multiple long-haul providers, but often
the consumer has only one option for multi-megabit connectivity.

The entity currently enjoying the edge monopoly attempts to
create vertical service alignment, to maximize profit.
They DON'T want to provide packet data service,
they want to provide ALL services (control content, filter, etc).
This is not a technical matter, it's senior staff maximizing rate of return.

To diverge from VoIP, an interesting situation will present itself
in the future.  Verizon is installing FTTH.  Data offerings
in their present service area are: 5, 15, and 30Mbps downstream.
These speeds would support broadcast quality video delivery
(even HD quality)  if properly implemented.

As hot a topic as voice is, the total money involved is decreasing.
Video services, however, still represent a huge revenue stream.
Will Verizon be a pure pipe provider?  Or, will they attempt to control services?

It would be nice to see Comcast get some meaningful competition.
Till now, they could never find the money to upgrade or maintain their
RF plant, but they had money available to pursue acquisition of Disney...

As troublesome as VoIP may (appear) to be, imagine video.
Very high duty-cycle, multi-megabit streams.  "36ccs", so to speak.

But, content creators could sell directly to end users.
Potentially, no cable company, no TV networks.
Perhaps even the studio structure will collapse.

A lot depends on how well the FTTH providers, and their
long-haul backbone partners do their job.  Whether they
embrace disruptive change, or resist it as an annoyance to their routine.

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