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Re: North America not interested in IP V6
- From: Marshall Eubanks
- Date: Fri Aug 01 10:55:08 2003
On Fri, 1 Aug 2003 14:32:39 +0100
> >I have been plotting the IPv6 ASNs for some time. These should be the
> >ISPs running IPv6. See:
> It would be interesting to see an analysis that combines this data with
> Geoff Huston's IPv4 analysis
> and see if we can predict the point at which the number of IPv6 addresses
> deployed begins to exceed the number of IPv4 addresses deployed? I realize
> that the IPv6 analysis is routes only, but one should be able to
> determine how many addresses are available in each ASN.
> One could reasonably assume that at the point where the Internet shifts to
> IPv6 as the core protocol, more than half of the interfaces with an IPv4
> address will also have an IPv6 address. So to get to that point, one could
> make some assumptions about the allocation of IPv6 /48's based on the
> observed trends in IPv4 /32's.
> I'm not sure where one would take this, but I think a lot of people would
> be interested in seeing some type of well-presented analysis of these
It's not worth doing a fine analysis to predict so far in the future - a
back of the envelope will do just fine :)
Look at ASN :
shows that IPv6 ASN (as seen fron NLNetLabs) are doubling about every 1.75
years, and are about 340 now.
So, IPv6 ASN can be modeled as
N_6 = 340 x 2^(T/1.75)
where T = time - 2003.5 in years.
Now, IPv4 ASN withb routing are growing linearly lately (see Figure 2b in
http://www.multicasttech.com/status/index.html for example) and
can be roughly modeled as
N_4 = 15000 + 1750 x (t - 2003.5) = 15000 + 1750 T
Set N_4 = N_6 and we see that the number of IPv4 and IPv6 ASN with routing
will be equal in a little less than 12 years (T ~ 11.75), or some time in the
Spring of 2015.
This is far enough into the future that I do not think that it is realistic to
be more rigorous than this.
> --Michael Dillon